Projections for 2015 automotive sales in the U.S. point to only a modest increase. However, Auto analysts say sales will continue to rise in the next few years but at a slower pace than past years.<\/p>\n
U.S. auto sales are on pace to rise 5 percent in 2014 to 16.4 million \u2014 the best performance since 2006 \u2014 after rising by nearly 8 percent in 2013. The consensus is \u201ccautious optimism\u201d as production and sales will grow far faster in Asia, while Europe and South America face significant economic concerns.<\/p>\n
LMC Automotive senior vice president Jeff Schuster said at a Standard & Poors auto industry conference that it predicts sales will rise just 2 percent next year to 16.7 million \u2014 fueled by 100 new, refreshed and redesigned vehicles being introduced in 2015, including Ford\u2019s new aluminum F-150.<\/p>\n
LMC sees U.S. sales rising to 17 million by 2018. LMC predicts the market will rise to 17.5 million in 2020 \u2014 which would represent the highest ever U.S. auto sales. Auto sales were above 16 million between 1999 and 2007 \u2014 hitting a high of 17.4 million in 2000.<\/p>\n
JD Power notes that U.S. consumer spending on new cars and trucks will break a record in 2014 \u2014 estimated at $407 billion \u2014 up from $376 billion in 2013 \u2014 as average transaction prices have risen dramatically to $30,000 this year \u2014 up from $26,560 in 2007. U.S. retail sales in 2014 expected to be 13.8 million vehicles is near an all-time record, with incentive spending up slightly in 2014 at $2,975 over 2013 when it was $2,834.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s spending is more than the gross domestic product of Austria, said Joe Derkos, director of consulting and analytics at J.D. Power.<\/p>\n
Automakers keep introducing new models. LMC says automakers will hike the number of U.S. models offered from 295 this year to 331 in 2018 \u2014 with 75 new nameplates expected through 2018 \u2014 along with 200 redesigns and 210 facelifts. As a result, the average number of vehicles sold per model will fall from 55,463 this year to 51,728 in 2018, LMC said. Biggest growth through 2018 will be in small luxury cars and small luxury SUVs.<\/p>\n
But 2018 sales of 17 million will be more profitable than sales in 2006, since there will be fewer rental car and other fleet sales in 2018 than 2006, LMC says.<\/p>\n